Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts

Thursday, 6 November 2014

Money, Gold and the Gold Standard

1. Introduction
Croesus, King of Lydians (Asia Minor), has been the symbol of wealth and power since ancient times. 650 BC he implemented his idea of making money from gold by having coins minted which then became official currency.
A new "era" had begun. The new small and handy exchange objects soon spread throughout the cultural area of the then Greek world and the adjoining regions.
Money represents the joint measure of all economic transactions. On the one hand, it is the (interim) means of exchange, which simplifies the exchange of goods (trade) amongst one another and, on the other hand, it embodies the function of the maintaining of value as well as a calculation unit.
Then, as today, money is a generally accepted means of payment prescribed by the state. The Latin word for money is "pecunia" and was derived from "pecus" = cattle.
When browsing through the history books of mankind, different objects (such as incense, wheat, metals, salt, stones, furs, shells, cigarettes, alcohol, paper money, etc.) were used as money medium, depending on the era.
Gold and silver were particularly significant here. This was and is not coincidence, because they are an ideal exchange and value maintenance medium due to their properties.
Wheat is only a luxury item in the event of a famine, but may rot and is thus not durable.
A diamond is durable and beautiful to look at, but arbitrarily divisible and similar.
Gold can be divided and melted arbitrarily and is in limited supply and has been known for centuries.
The history of money can be broken down into several steps, which may be by topic very different, but cannot be held apart in terms of time. In general, we distinguish the following steps: Natural exchange (goods for goods), natural money (a good, e.g. wheat or shells, was defined as money), metal money(full-value coins made from precious metals, expert term face-value coins, inferior to uncovered coins, expert term secondary coins),
cash (covered paper money and coins), as well as bank money is also called bank money (out money today, which is based on the creation of credit).
2. A glance into the past
In old Mesopotamia (3000 to 2000 BC) there was a money system that could be called the predecessor of the gold standard.
To be precise, the name "wheat standard" would be more befitting, because the underlying was not gold but wheat. It was defined that 1 shekel = approx. 170 grains. The word "she" roughly means wheat and "kel" was a measure similar to a bushel.
(The word "shekel" still exists in Hebrew as the name for the Israeli currency.)
Already back then, the attempt was made to define the exchange good (= money) by specifying money to the weight of the underlying (wheat) per unit. However, this money system was unsuccessful because wheat is entirely unsuitable as the underlying for a money system. (rotting, difficult storage, differing harvests, etc.)
In ancient times pieces of metal were finally applied as sign or emblem. Initially, every lump of gold had different measurements and weights, meaning that the value determination of every individual piece had to be re-established when trading; this meant that finally the idea was born to standardise the dimensions and weight of the metal pieces - the coin was born.
The thus minted coins made of gold (and silver) represent a gold currency, because they embody the value of the money in the form of firmly defined gold or silver proportion.
The fact that countries with a gold currency existed longest in history is remarkable.
The Eastern Roman Empire existed after introducing the solidus by Constantine the Great in 324 for more than 12 centuries, the Republic of Venice for half a millennium after starting to mint the ducat in 1284.
When introducing a gold coin currency, Julius Caesar saved Rome from a demise which would have occurred 400 years earlier. Rome only collapsed when the successors to Caesar continuously reduced the gold content of the coins.
Gold or silver coins of that time did not only have many benefits, but also drawbacks. Some drawbacks were the weight, storage and transport - in particular of large amounts over long distances.
Also the many centuries of attempts to dilute and minimise the precious metal content of the coins, had an adverse effect on money stability.
After several attempts, the gold deposit standard was implemented in Europe in the 17th century. It could be regarded as the predecessor of the gold standard, although it involved silver and not gold.
The historic gold standard, which is generally referred to in the publications and vernacular, started its global triumphal procession from England in the 19th century.
Here, an exchange rate set by the state was agreed. The value printed on the paper money was deposited in gold. The paper money was re-convertible at any time back into gold, while the exchange rate was the same.
A gold standard, i.e. a partial cover of the state money by gold, no longer exists globally. Some countries do have gold reserves (e.g.: USA 8,146 tonnes, Germany 2,960 tones, Switzerland 2,590 tonnes decreasing, France 2,546 tonnes, etc.), but they are in no way related or proportional to the relevant national currency.
If must, however, be noted that countries such as Mexico or Russia announced in 2001 to issue official currency money with silver or gold coins. On the internet numerous private providers, such as eGold or eDinar, offer a gold-covered currency on the basis of a clearing account.
2.1. The two forms of the gold standard
In the late Middle Ages, gold coins were the currency with the highest nominal value. Goldsmiths were regarded as particularly suitable to check whether the coins were pure and genuine. In addition, they had stable cassettes, in which they could protect the gold securely from thieves; this meant that private gold was deposited for safety reasons. Goldsmiths issued a receipt for the coins and charged a small safekeeping fee. If the owner wanted his gold back, he redeemed the receipt.
Over time, it was regarded as safer and, in particular, far more convenient to pay open invoices simply with such receipts. This means that the receipts of the goldsmiths became pledges to pay for the promise. And as soon as someone accepted the receipt as payment, he implicitly concluded a purchase agreement with the goldsmith, who thus fulfilled the function of a bank.
Summary: This type of gold standard is the gold deposit standard, where gold or silver was saved in a central clearing office (collection office), which corresponded to a gold coverage of 100%. In turn, the businessmen were issued with a voucher (=money substitutes) in paper form. With this credit, further transactions could be made in terms of accounting or exchanged for other goods and services.
The gold deposit standard, although based on silver, was used by private clearing banks, which played a major role in Venice, Genoa, Nuremberg, Amsterdam and Hamburg from the 17th century. In the 19th century there were more than 30 private so-called "note banks", which all issued vouchers. The Hamburg-based clearing bank (Hamburger Banco) had its own currency for more than 300 years, the so-called "Mark Banco", which was always linked to the specific silver price and thus fully stable.
However, Hamburger Banco nearly collapsed in 1857 when the businessmen had to withdraw silver and the bank was devoided of its precious metal. The crisis was avoided through major silver supplies from Austria-Hungary. A couple of years later, the private bank was closed by the state.
(It must be noted that this currency was simply a calculation currency which was never minted.
Mark was an old German weight measure, approx. half a pound).
A slightly different variant was the Banque Royale in France, founded in 1716 by John Law, which went down in history as the first state central bank. Law promised to cover bank notes with gold. The gold owners (mainly noble men) gave their gold to the bank and received shares in Banque Royale in return. Compared to interest-free gold, the shares promised a dividend. The gold served as the basis of trust for the issue of bank notes (livres). The notes were issued as credit to the state.
A couple of years later, John Law founded the Mississippi Compagnie, whose shares were sold for livres. Their business purposes was to promote the extraction of gold in Louisiana, which was a French colony at the time. In reality, the continuously increasing equity capital was diverted to the state treasury for consumption purposes. The more notes John Law's central bank brought into circulation through state loans, the higher the share price of John Law's Compagnie rose. As all bank notes were used for state consumption, they did not have any real value, except for the original gold amount.
In 1720 the first run on Banque Royale occurred. John Law was forced to undertake exchange control. He banned the private ownership of gold and jewellery in order to increase the gold stock of the bank. But the bank nevertheless went under.
The first central bank with strict rules for the gold cover of the bank notes in circulation was the Bank of England. Established already in 1694, it was forced to compete with private issue bank for the issuing of loans to the British state in the first 150 years of its existence.
Its main competitor was the South Sea Company, which in 1720 redirected the capital flowing out of the Mississippi Compagnie into its own shares. The money was partly invested into some opaque projects and partly in state consumption. The South Sea Company turned out to be as equally dubious as the company on the Mississippi, and its share prices and the trust in pound notes ended in a South Sea bubble.
The Bank of England survived the competition. The issuing of notes was subjected to a strict limit in 1844 as a result of the negative experiences, meaning that notes for a maximum of 14 million pounds were allowed to be uncovered. (Peel's Bank Act). This trust contingent was covered by state securities, but did not have gold as the underlying. Every additional pound could only be issued if purchasing gold.
This resulted in the classic gold standard as the first internationally valid currency system with paper money on a gold basis, with which issuing banks were allowed to issue more vouchers (money) than they held in stock in the form of gold (=partial gold cover).
A 100% cover with gold, as with the gold deposit standard, no longer existed, but a minimum cover was introduced. Gold hence only played the role of a regulative, because it was not possible to lend more than permitted by the cover threshold ("golden break"). We will come back to this later.
When fixing the parity, Sir Isaac Newton made a mistake in 1707 (the gold-silver exchange rate was wrongly calculated), with the result that gold and not silver became the standard.
At the start of 1800, Britain was regarded as the world's leading trade nation and thus the classic gold standard became the global system in the following years, after a short interruption.
Due to the war between Britain and France, which erupted in 1802, the Bank von England had to suspend the gold redemption of its bank notes. The gold prices subsequently rose strongly. (On the real reasons of this process, the banker David Ricardo informed the public in 1810/11 in his famous thesis On the High Price of Bullion.) After the end of the war in 1815, Britain reverted to the gold standard.
Other countries (France, Belgium, Italy and Switzerland) founded on 23.12.1865 in Paris a common coin association, which went down in history as the Latin Monetary Union. 3 years later (in 1868), Greece joined the association. Other countries, such as Austria, Finland, several small European states, some states in Central and South America, the colonies of contracting states, the German Empire (officially in 1873) and other states assumed the rules and regulations of the Latin Monetary Union.
The objective of the monetary union was to create a common money exchange as well as eliminate exchange rate fluctuations in order to establish in the long term a global currency covered with precious metal on the basis of the franc.
An outstanding figure in the 1870s was Britain's Prime Minister Disraeli (in office: 1868 and 1874-1880). It is more or less thanks to him and his connections to the Rothschild family that the international gold standard was established and London became the centre of the international currency system.
It must also be mentioned that the Rothschilds were the world's leading gold dealers.
Another important factor for the success of the gold standard were Britain's domestic policies. The link of monetary and employment policies was little known, the influence of trade unions and socialist parties insignificant. National bankers were able to implement their monetary policy in a strong currency and low inflation without any consideration.
The strict policy of a stable currency gave national banks a lot of trustworthiness. Therefore, they had the opportunity to influence the behaviour of the investors - which was particularly beneficial in times of crisis.
Every currency was - in line with the British model - simply a national name for a certain amount of gold, while the gold price (per troy ounce) was specified by the intervention policy of the Bank of England at its London gold market. It remained (unchanged) for nearly a century at 3 pounds 17 shillings and 9 pence.
(parity rate: 1 kg of gold = £ 136.57 = M 2,790 or £1 = M 20.43).
This resulted in fixed, unchangeable exchange rates of the currencies amongst one another.
This means that there was a global currency, gold, which was circulated as different paper money throughout the world, but interlinked through fixed exchange rates.
With a gold content of the pound of 9 grams of gold and of the thaler of 3 grams of gold, everybody knew that 3 thalers = 1 pound and 1 thaler = 1/3 pound remained such, because the monetary laws could be changed by parliaments but not by markets.
It must again be pointed out here that not money but gold is the measure.
Money is measured by gold and not the other way round. (Money was always devalued compared to gold, an increasing amount of money units had to be handed over per gram of gold.)
The gold standard was until 1914 a guarantor for international stability, stable prices and full employment for nearly a century.
The gold standard's stability was based on the strict compliance with national laws and cover provisions and the trust of the world of finance in the reliability of the system.
This is all the more remarkable as there were no international regulatory and monitoring authorities (IMF, World Bank, etc.).
(A couple of interesting calculation examples regarding gold then and today can be provided by Dr Timmermann.)
In addition, it should be mentioned here that employment rose and unemployment decreased during the era of the gold standard. Unfortunately, as the images prove, this fact is often presented differently.
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Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/5224001

Friday, 17 October 2014

Thinking About Investing in Gold?

This article may contain the most important information you will ever read! Unless you have been living under the proverbial rock you know that the price of gold and silver has been skyrocketing! The price of gold news dominates the financial segments daily! If you are considering making a purchase of gold and silver for your investment portfolio, you need to pay attention to what I am going to share with you in this article!
Why Buy Gold?
For those of you who are neophytes to the gold and silver market, you probably have many questions. You may be asking yourself, "Why buy gold?". That is a very good question. Depending on whom you ask you will probably get a different answer. I will tell you the reason why you should buy gold...Because GOLD IS MONEY!
When (notice I did not say "if") our currency fails (and it has to!) and our paper money is worthless, owning physical gold (and silver) will become the globally accepted currency. People will need gold to purchase the essentials of everyday life!
Another reason to buy gold is... Because Gold Is A Store Of Value! Gold never loses its value. The same amount of gold will buy an average home today as it did in the 1920s! The price of gold has an inverse relationship with the value of the dollar.
When the dollar is up the price of gold goes down. When the dollar falls the price of gold increases!
Quick Historical Fact: Throughout history, all the fiat currencies of great civilizations have failed! The U.S. dollar has had a nice run but it too is coming to a fast end! Learn from the past or you are doomed to repeat it!
Our nation is on the verge of a TRAUMATIC Economic disaster! The perfect economic storm is forming and it is just a matter of time before it hits. When that happens, hyperinflation will occur and the dollar will collapse.
Those who own gold and I mean "physical" gold, not stocks of gold companies, will become wealthy! At this writing, the price of gold is approximately $1,500 per ounce! I predict that within two years or less the price of gold will hit $5,000 per ounce or MORE!
In addition, here is the reason not to buy gold... Because Gold Is Not An Investing Vehicle! Yes if you bought gold and especially silver in the past few years, and held on to it, you have made quite a nice profit! However, trying to play roulette with the price of gold and silver is a fool's game.
Buy gold because... It Is A Hedge Against Inflation! As prices go up and the purchasing power of the dollar drops, your money is becoming worthless. So what if I am wrong and we do not experience hyperinflation and you went out and bought a boatload of gold and silver?
What is the worst thing that could happen to you? You would still own a boatload of gold and silver. Guess what? The value of gold and silver NEVER GOES TO ZERO!
The Problem With Gold As A Currency
When the dollar crashes and people start using gold for business transactions using gold bars, gold coins, and gold jewelry will not necessarily be practical. They are too big and will be worth too much money. You will not be able to buy groceries with a one-ounce gold coin worth $5,000!
The Answer: buy gold in small denominations of.5 grams, 1 gram, or 2-gram ingots! More on that later.
Where You Can Find Gold
It seems that gold is ubiquitous. It is everywhere you look these days, isn't it? These "Cash For Gold" places are apparently in every strip center in the country! Gold purchasing companies are advertising for you to mail in your gold and they will give you money back. Every other television commercial is promoting gold commemorative coins!
IMPORTANT TIP: Avoid these places like the plague! They are a supreme rip off. They are gold experts. You're not. They buy and sell gold every day. You do not. They do this for a living. You do not. They will beat you all day long.
I know times are tough and people need to pay bills so they resort to trading in their keepsake jewelry for easy cash. My advice: KEEP YOUR GOLD AND SILVER JEWELRY! It will be worth 100 times as much in a couple of years!
Beware The Pitfalls Of Buying Gold From These Sources
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)
ETFs for gold and silver can be very good vehicles for trading but they can also be a major pitfall for investing. When you buy an ETF, you are buying shares in a trust that is owned and run by a bank, which might be holding gold or silver. However, shares in an EFT are not gold or silver, which is allocated to, and wholly owned by a single entity, YOU!
Numismatics
Numismatics is defined as the study or collecting of coins, medals, and paper money. They are considered "collectables" and as such are subject to being valued in terms of rarity and sentimentality. Numismatics coins are easy to buy, however, they can be very difficult to sell!
Online Sellers
Although there are many legitimate and reputable online services to buy and sell gold, there are just as many scams and fraudulent services out there as well! Only buy from a well-known online company. Do your homework and check with consumer watch dog agencies to confirm the online seller you buy from is trustworthy. Buy your gold from a service that comes recommended by someone you know and trust.
How To Buy Gold
Find a company that sells gold in small ingots or bullion. Ingots will be the perfect size for use as gold money currency. Make sure the gold in 99.9% pure kina-bar quality gold certified by an authorized agency. Be sure to shop around for the lowest storage fees. The best gold brokerage firms offer storage for free! Feel free to visit my website for a list of the best gold brokers in the market.
Storing Your Gold vs Possessing Your Gold
I recommend that you store most of your gold in a Swiss Bank or a Hong Kong bank.
This way in the event of an economic disaster the Federal Government cannot mandate you give your gold to them as they did during the Great Depression!
Should I Buy Gold or Silver?
For practical purposes, that is, using precious metals as a new global currency Gold is a better choice. It is not as soft as silver and small ingots bring a higher price. The price of Silver is forecasted to continue its meteoric rise with more room to go higher than gold. So if you are trading precious metals, silver is a better bet.
Best Book On Buying Gold and Silver
Easily, best book on the subject: "Guide To Investing in Gold & Silver" by Michael Maloney.
About This Article's Author
Tim Cronin is a Partner with KB Vision USA. For more info about the new global gold backed currency, visit his website. For more information about Buying Gold, please visit my website, and click on the page titled, "New Money System..."
Tim Cronin
Partner
KB Vision USA
For more info about Gold, The New Global Currency Please visit my website: [http://thevaluemarketingcoach.com]


Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/6334420

Sunday, 3 August 2014

Rising Gold Prices - An Overview

It is important to grasp the big picture of why gold is going up and the factors that are fueling its rise.
An Overview Since 1974
In 1971 President Richard Nixon ended US dollar convertibility to gold, bringing to an end the central role of gold in world currency systems. Three years later Congress legalized the ownership of gold by US citizens. Freed from the government-mandated price of $35 per ounce, the dollar and gold floated. In 1979 and 1980, investors' lack of confidence in the government's ability to restrict the expansion of the money supply resulted in panic buying of precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Gold prices soared, and in January 1980 the gold price hit a record of $850 per ounce. During the four-year period from 1976 to 1980, the price of gold had risen by more than 750%.
In the early 1980s the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates to restrict money supply growth. This policy achieved its purpose and by 1982 interest rates were declining and the fear of inflation had subsided. Investment capital responded by moving into financial assets from commodities including gold, and the market soared. After the historic highs of January 1980, the price of gold meandered in the $300-$400 range until hitting a low of $256 in February 2001. Then the bull market for gold returned, and by November 2009 the price had pushed up to $1,140 - a rise of 445%. To some investors, this suggests that history is repeating itself and gold is heading beyond $2,000 per ounce. To return to the 1980 high, when adjusted for inflation, the price would need to be over $2,000 now.
Today's Gold Market
The price of gold is set by the Gold Fixing, which is also known as the Gold Fix or London Gold Fixing. Twice a day by telephone, at 10:30 GMT and 15:00 GMT, five members of the London Gold Pool meet to settle contracts between members of the London bullion market. These settlements brokered by the Gold Fixing are widely recognized as the benchmark used to price gold and gold products throughout the world.
Let's examine some of the factors that influence the price of gold.
Gold Supply
There is an agency that tracks of all the gold in the world. Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd (GFMS) is an independent, London-based consultancy and research company, dedicated to the study of the international gold and silver markets. GFMS publishes the annual Gold Survey, which features comprehensive analysis and statistics on gold supply and demand for over sixty countries. GFMS estimates that above-ground gold stocks represent a total volume of approximately 160,000 tonnes, of which over 60% has been mined since 1950. GFMS estimates that all the gold ever mined would form a cube measuring 20 yards (19 meters) on each side.
The production of new gold does not generally keep pace with inflation. The aboveground gold stock increases at a fairly constant rate of around 1.7% per year. During the last 50 years the largest annual increase was 2.1% and the smallest increase was 1.4%. This is less than the long-term historic rate of inflation, which is 4%.
The single largest holder of gold in the world is the United States government, with 8,133.5 tonnes. As of November 2009 this gold supply was worth approximately $330 billion. Other top holders of gold include Germany, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Italy, France, SPDR Gold Shares, China, Switzerland, Japan, and the Netherlands.
The US Dollar
The price of gold is widely understood to inversely track the dollar. When the dollar falls the price of gold tends to rise. But there have been many cases when the price of gold did not keep up with changes in the value of the dollar, or even ran counter to it.
For example, when gold peaked in 1980, it reflected a prevalent fear of inflation in the wake of the 1979 oil shock and a U.S. monetary policy that lacked credibility. The case for gold as a hedge against inflation was persuasive. But today, the price of oil is up significantly in currencies other than the dollar. Even measured in euros, it has returned to the February save-haven peak. The weakness of the US dollar alone cannot explain the rise in price.
In early November, with the goal to support the United States' recovery from recession, the US Federal Reserve decided to maintain the massive stimulus measures and hold down US interest rates for "an extended period." With the Federal Reserve keeping rates low, a record US budget deficit continuing to rise, and central banks all over the world diversifying away from the dollar, gold may continue to be a very attractive choice. After all, the cost of borrowing money to invest in gold is next to nothing.
On the global markets there is a persistent lack of confidence in paper-based currencies. The weakening of the U.S. dollar has had a broad effect that reduces confidence in other currencies. And with central banks and government policymakers still entangled in their unprecedented fiscal and monetary interventions, this could continue for much longer.
The current strength of gold may be a reflection not of a specific response to the value of the US dollar, but rather the expression of the same underlying malaise with the lingering effects of the global financial crisis.
Supply and Demand
In recent years the decline in mine supply has been supplemented by several factors including sustained central bank gold sales. In the 1990s, central bankers were acting as a group to reduce their gold holdings, confident that the fiat currencies were a better store of value. Central bank reserve sales, which during the past decade have played a key role in keeping gold prices in check, have slowed recently. Now gold's attractions are re-emerging and bankers look set to be net buyers, which should help tighten the market.
In addition, scrap sales offset mining declines. In the first quarter, scrap sales rose sharply as gold re-visited its all-time high.
Industrial demand for gold is influenced by fabrication needs, which have dropped sharply since 1997. The global economic downturn, coupled with higher prices, further reduced the demand for jewelry, and supply-demand changes add little in terms of explaining bullion's rise.
Government Bonds
Ten-year U.S. treasury yields have rebounded from their end-of-2008 lows between 2% and 3.3%, but this does not necessarily represent widespread fear of inflation. There is little evidence that gold buying is the result of inflation concerns.
Speculation and ETFs
The 2008 surge in crude oil prices to US$147 per barrel suggests that a similar speculative bubble is forming in gold. However, one obvious difference between then and now is that when oil peaked, the forward market was anticipating a decline in prices. The gold market anticipates a rise, and forecasts a value of US$1,250 per ounce for June 2014. While ETFs were cited as a culprit for the rise in oil and are also playing a role in the gold market, their impact may be limited in the gold market.
Early in 2009 ETFs may have been active buyers, but their activity has leveled off since. There has been a sharp increase in long forward positions in gold at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and net longs have reached a record.
Despite all the attention being paid to sales of gold by central banks and the fact that world gold holdings have experienced a broad decline, holdings in industrialized economies are on the rise as a share of total foreign reserves. And this trend was renewed in the first quarter.
China and Foreign Markets
China is emerging as an international economic force and its reported gold holdings are not necessarily reliable. This is particularly significant now that Chinese authorities can make their purchases on the domestic market. The People's Bank of China (BOC) holds about 1,054 metric tons of gold, which is about two percent of its $2.3 trillion in foreign currency reserves.
Retailers and jewelers are increasingly reluctant to buy at higher levels. In recent years India has been the world's biggest importer of gold, and in February 2008 imports stood at 23 tonnes. The figure fell to 1.8 tonnes in January 2009 and in February there was no gold imported. But in October 2009 on the back of rising demand India's gold imports surged by over 45% at 48 tonnes. India had imported 33 tonnes in the corresponding period during the previous year.
In September 2009 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would sell 403.3 metric tons of gold to strengthen its finances and increase its ability to make loans to developing countries. In November IMF revealed that from Oct. 19 to Oct. 30 it sold 200 metric tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The RBI paid $6.7 billion for the equivalent of about 8% of the world's annual mine production. As a percentage of foreign reserves, India's gold holdings are now higher than even China's. Many analysts believe India's purchase will spur other countries and investors to ramp up their gold purchases. Indeed, with 203.3 metric tons still on sale at the IMF, China may become the next big purchaser.
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Thursday, 5 June 2014

Gold - A "Bridge Over Troubled Water"

Back in 1969, when Simon & Garfunkel recorded "Bridge over Troubled Water" the duo had a gut feeling that this song was going to make a very big splash. And they were right, as their recording went on to become a number-one hit (staying atop the charts for six weeks) - while being covered by literally dozens of other singers.
Like Simon & Garfunkel, investors entering the gold market around 2001 have also scored a smash hit. Since then - quite simply - gold has performed in spectacular fashion. Even in 2008, when fears of a global financial meltdown drove virtually every asset class into the ground, gold alone held its relative value, actually rising that year by almost 5%.
And the best news? It's an odd's on favorite that we are still early in what could prove to be an epic precious metals' bull run. Says Doug Casey, who wrote one of the top selling investment books of all time: "The easy money in precious metals and the mining stocks has been made, but the big money lies ahead." With so many other investments looking questionable and the world economic situation still unclear, this "metal of kings" can provide the savvy investor with a bridge over troubled water. For peace of mind, look at gold (and silver) as providing insurance first; profit second. Why is the Case for Gold so Compelling?
Central Banks have Become Net Buyers
Between 1999 and 2002, England's central bank sold two-thirds of its gold reserves at almost the exact bottom of what turned out to be the end of a 20 year bear market. The official who squandered this portion of his country's monetary legacy was later to become Great Britain's Prime Minister - and lend his name to what is known in financial circles as "The Brown Bottom." A few years later, Canada (also unwisely) followed suit, getting rid of almost its entire reserve of gold.
But it now appears that central bank thinking has changed. For the first time in over 22 years, they have actually become net buyers - led in the fall of 2009 by India's purchase of over 200 tons of gold. Most of these officials are once again concluding that the yellow metal's strong financial performance makes it a useful counter-weight to the swings of the U.S. dollar, which has been steadily losing value for a number of years. While gold is no longer the foundation of the international financial system, it is still considered by central banks to be a crucial reserve asset. Rumors are abuzz that China, as well as a number of wealthy Middle Eastern nations have been quietly scooping up what little gold the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been offering for sale.
Supply is Down
According to the World Gold Council, gold's popularity continues to surge, driven by increasing industrial and jewelry manufacturing use, in addition to very strong investor demand - from individuals and institutions.
Also, producers have accelerated the unwinding of their hedge books. Years ago, mining giant Barrick Gold pre-sold much of its production forward under contract, promising to deliver at hundreds of dollars an ounce lower than where the metal trades today. In a better-late-than-never development, it recently decided to buy back all of its hedges - in the process, suffering a loss of several billion dollars...and adding to global gold demand.
The data strongly implies that available stockpiles will not keep pace with demand in coming years. Gold's global production peaked in 2002. Several of the world's largest mining companies expect further declines in production next year, and are in a scramble to increase reserves through the acquisition of new mining properties. South Africa, once the world's largest gold producer (now supplanted by China), mined its lowest amount of gold since 1922 - and its overall output is down 72 percent from its 1970 peak. Whereas China and Russia have become a major force in gold production, they also seem inclined to hold onto most of it - adding these precious ounces to their own reserves.
Importantly, no new major mine supply is expected in the near term. In general, it takes more than a decade to acquire, finance, build and staff a mine and commence production. Thus, the supply/demand imbalance is expected to continue - and is likely to increase for years to come.
Most of the new gold discoveries in recent years have been of the low grade/bulk tonnage variety, often in remote locations - sometimes near environmentally-sensitive areas. The normal procedure with these deposits is to dig up and crush thousands of tons of ore-bearing rock, then apply chemicals in a "heap-leach" process to get out the gold. The yield from this procedure is often only a few grams per ton! Compounding the supply problem is an ongoing global shortage of trained geologists, miners, diamond drills and mining equipment.
While Demand is Up...
Demand, on the other hand, continues to increase in the face of the newfound prosperity and increased disposable income being freed up by the Asian economic boom, particularly in China and India - three billion people adding fuel to a long-term shift in consumption demand.
Throughout the developing world, gold is the most liquid, efficient and widely accepted form of exchange and the best store of value - especially in rural areas that lack access to banking services. Jewelry is coveted in the developing world, where it functions as both adornment and savings. It is often the only asset a Muslim or Hindu woman is culturally permitted to own, and therefore may be her only form of protection against financial adversity. Additionally, the dowry concept is alive and well in India today, where gold is commonly transferred from the family of the bride to the groom.
Recently...

  • Legendary hedge fund manager, John Paulson has chosen to place a significant percentage of his total investment capital into gold and its relatives - ETFs and stocks. He actually owns more gold than that of several countries combined!
  • Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., the 3rd largest life insurer, has now bought gold for the first time in its 152-year history.
  • The U.S. Mint is dealing with "pipeline" shortages of gold and silver blanks, causing delays or outright cancellation in the production of certain numismatic and bullion coins.
  • The Gold Buffalo - America's first 24 karat gold bullion coin - had its 2009 issue release delayed until last October, and in less than two months, discontinued sales until 2010...after exceeding its annual sales totals for each of the past two years.
  • The U. S. dollar is no longer perceived as the automatic safe haven for concerned investors around the globe. If you had a choice, would you rather own "digital dollars" - or gold?
  • It is in the government's interest to create inflation through excessive expansion of the money supply, in order to pay off its obligations of accumulated debt, such as employee pensions, Medicare and Social Security, in worth-less dollars.

Gold production is limited. Money creation by Printing Press is...Infinite.
Zimbabwe: Not that many years ago, the Zimbabwe dollar was trading at US $1.47. Last year, it had sunk to 100 TRILLION to the Dollar. A beautiful country which used to export grain to its neighbors now faces starvation. Imagine how a Zimbabwean family would feel, if they could lay claim to even one ounce of gold!
North Korea: In December 2009, North Koreans awoke to find that they would be required to exchange 100 units of their currency, the won, for just 1 unit of the government's new paper money. Overnight, the savings of these long-suffering people (except for the bureaucrats) had been wiped out. How different things might have been for them, if they possessed just a few ounces of "the poor man's gold" - silver!
The United States? Can we have "guns and butter" as the U.S. tried to do in the 1960's to finance the Vietnam War and the President's Great Society programs? In just the past year, the Federal Reserve has doubled the country's monetary base. In addition, how will we pay for a massive new healthcare program and two wars?
Within the next 12 months, it is estimated that the U.S. Treasury will have to finance between $2 and $3 trillion dollars in short-term debt, an amount equal to 30% of our GDP. Where will the money come from? Richard Russell, the doyen of financial newsletter writers (who began publishing in 1958) answers this rhetorical question. He says, "(And) my answer is that the money will have to come from the Fed by way of the printing press."
Is it any wonder that gold has outperformed nearly every other asset class over the past few years, including the S & P 500, protecting investors now in the same way that it has during other turbulent times? According to the Wall Street Journal:

"Even with the rebound this year, the U.S. stock market posted its worst performance for any calendar decade in nearly 200 years of American stock-market history. Investors would have been better off investing in pretty much anything else, from bonds to gold or even just stuffing money under a mattress. Since the end of 1999, stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange have lost an average of 0.5% a year thanks to the twin bear markets this decade."

If gold had a voice, it would most likely sing, "I'm on your side, when times get rough/And friends just can't be found."
For 5,000 years, Gold and Silver have been looked upon as "Honest Money"
Honest, because gold and silver's rarity forces governments to limit the amount of paper in circulation. When citizens can exchange their printing press bills for "honest money" the government is forced to act responsibly regarding how much currency it can print...and how much it can spend!
Throughout history and across cultures, people have understood that it is wise to keep a portion of their wealth in gold. Over time, gold holds its value and serves as insurance. It is a truism that in Roman times, an ounce of gold would buy a fine tunic (garment) - and today that same golden ounce will still purchase a high quality suit.
The world is awash in fiat paper. Today, not a single currency is backed by gold - the first time in history when this has been the case. The total value of all paper money and bonds in the world is estimated to be on the order of $100 trillion, while the total value of all the gold ever mined is $5.9 trillion. Essentially then, for every dollar in paper money, there are only 5.9 cents worth of real money to back it up - a disconcerting thought. Perhaps the time has come to bring gold into your own portfolio, so that it can help serve as a "bridge over troubled water" for you.
Gold is Rare
Just how rare is gold? How small is the supply? According to the World Gold Council, as of 2006 the total amount of all gold ever mined comes out to under 6 billion ounces. Given that the total world population now exceeds 6.6 billion people, there is less than one ounce of gold available per person to invest in right now - a figure that shrinks even further in light of the fact that central banks already hold a considerable amount of the above ground supply.
It has been estimated that in USD terms, there are roughly $200 trillion in investable assets globally, but only $5.9 trillion of that wealth is in gold.
Why is this relevant? For one thing, financial portfolio managers suggest that at least 5 percent of a person's total net worth should be invested in precious metals as an insurance policy to protect against hard economic times and periods of geopolitical instability. Yet very few people have followed this advice - which is somewhat fortunate, as there is not enough gold to go around should the general public decide to act on this advice en masse!
Gold's Special Qualities
Gold has functioned as an adornment and store of value for more than 6,000 years. The earliest gold jewelry dates from the Sumerian civilization that flourished around 4,000 BC. Gold's intrinsic beauty, warmth, glitter, sensuality and spiritual richness have evoked powerful human emotions throughout history.
The Bible contains a detailed and lengthy description of the role that gold in its various forms played during King Solomon's reign (1 Kings Ch. 10). To hold an item made of gold is to possess something that has provided security and value for thousands of years.
Gold plays a vital part as a symbol of love and devotion. It has significance for occasions like weddings, anniversaries and birthdays, as well as a host of other holidays, ceremonies and customs. Consider, too, the ways in which gold has enriched our language - the best years of our lives are known as "the golden years" An advantageous situation is referred to as a "golden opportunity." A civilization's time of peace, prosperity and creativity is referred to as a "golden era". Treating others the way you wish to be treated is known as "The Golden Rule."
Gold is...

  • Free of religious or political affiliation
  • Neutral on race, gender and language preference
  • Easily transported
  • Universally accepted
  • With low/negative correlation to other major asset classes, helps diversify ones portfolio.
  • Impervious to corrosion, tarnish or decay
  • Free from debt (no one but the owner has claim to it)
  • Rare, scarce and difficult to produce -world supply increases less than 2% annually.
  • Cannot be created in unlimited quantities on a printing press like the dollar, yen or peso
  • All but impossible to counterfeit
  • Easily bought and sold anywhere in the world
  • Incapable of being bankrupted - no one but its owner has a claim to it.

Concluding Thoughts
Gold is quite simply, on a powerful run. In 2009 it traded at more than $1,200 an ounce - over 4 times higher than its low point in 2000. For 9 years in a row, the price of gold has increased. Can you name another asset class which has shown this kind of performance during the first decade of the new century? As a result, gold is gradually appearing on people's radar screen - and finding its way into Main Street portfolios.
At the top of gold's last bull market in 1980, the nominal high price was $850. To reach that same level on an inflation-adjusted basis today - using the CPI as calculated by the government - the price would rise to somewhere between $2,000 and $3,000. And what if the U.S. decided to return to a gold standard to back its paper dollars? Gold would have to be valued at more than $6,000 per ounce.
Major investment banks and brokerage firms that were long silent on gold are now talking it up. Merrill Lynch has reiterated its forecast that gold could top $1,500 during the next year or so.
Analysts know that the combination of slowing U.S. economic growth, the inflationary effects of rising oil and commodity prices and a change in supply-and-demand dynamics make gold a safe haven, which is likely to place further upward pressure on its price given the tight supply. Just like during the last metals bull market, we will see one of the giants of business publishing a book that advises investment in gold and precious metals, an event which may well serve as the tipping point toward a new investment Gold Rush.
Some observers believe that the gold price will be driven much higher, not so much due to greed, but more by fear, as the public - from some of the wealthiest investors, to those individuals and families who may only be able to afford fractional gold ounces - seek a way to protect their assets from the ravages of inflation, volatile stock and real estate prices, not to mention currency destruction like that experienced by the unfortunate citizens of Zimbabwe and North Korea.
Throughout history, the fate of every paper currency issued has been an eventual decline to its intrinsic value - zero. Could this happen to the United States? While no one can say for sure, betting against history could be a risky move. As the famous line from the Dirty Harry movie goes, "Do you feel lucky today?" Well, do you...?
Is the Last Train Leaving the Station?
Those who do not own gold need to ask themselves if it has become decision time. For those who decide to act - Do it to protect and diversify your portfolio. Do it for family. Do it because commodity bull markets typically last 15 years or more, and this one looks like it has a long way to go.
The last train may be leaving the station, so don't be left behind. The U.S. dollar may well continue to fall relative to foreign currencies. This will fan the flames of inflation as foreign goods become more expensive. Asian investors continue to dump the U.S. dollar, and the central banks of Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam have signaled their intention to cut purchases of U.S. bonds. China is becoming less friendly to the dollar and clearly intends to diversify. August 2007 marked the first time since 1998 that the rest of the world has sold more U.S. treasuries than it has purchased, and that trend continues. Our government has actually had to buy some of its own debt to make up this difference! U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have trimmed our yield advantage over other countries, making for a very gold-positive situation.
Become a part of this historic bull-run in gold, and rest easier at night knowing that you have preserved your purchasing power and that you hold something of real and increasing value.
As Simon & Garfunkel sang, "Your time has come to shine/All your dreams are on their way...."


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